Except for coaching hires on Mike Sullivan’s staff and in Wilkes-Barre, the Pittsburgh Penguins have had a quiet couple of months since their season ended.
That’s about to change.
The NHL Draft and the opening of the unrestricted free agency period are upon us. Kyle Dubas, the Penguins’ general manager and president of hockey operations, has his hands full. His obstacles are clear: The Penguins haven’t reached either of the past two postseasons, they’re one of the NHL’s oldest teams, they don’t have much in the way of talent in their minor-league system, nearly half of their roster has a no-movement clause, and they have only around $13 million of salary cap space.
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Uncle.
Dubas is enthusiastic and eager to pull off the seemingly impossible, to replenish the Penguins’ system in short order while improving the NHL roster.
It’s fair to say Dubas’ first season running the Penguins was filled with mixed reviews. The Erik Karlsson trade was brilliant even if the defenseman failed to reach expectations in his first season with the Penguins. The Lars Eller signing was excellent. The same can’t be said for the Ryan Graves signing.
So what comes next?
Here’s what I’m hearing.
• Jake Guentzel is one of the biggest names on the market and, frankly, is one of the bigger names to hit unrestricted free agency in recent years. Players like Guentzel usually don’t get away from their original team, but given the Penguins’ lack of cap space, their aging roster and their need for prospects, Dubas made the difficult decision to deal Guentzel to Carolina.
Guentzel isn’t returning to Raleigh. Is there a chance he could return to Pittsburgh?
I recently spoke with a person close to Guentzel and granted them anonymity so they could speak freely. The verdict: Guentzel would love to return to Pittsburgh, and there’s a chance it happens — but only a small chance.
Guentzel’s desire to return to Pittsburgh makes sense. Guentzel and his wife, Natalie, love it here. Guentzel loves playing for Sullivan and loves playing on Sidney Crosby’s left wing. Incidentally, Crosby would like to have Guentzel back.
There are some roadblocks. First and foremost, the Penguins have a handful of roster spots to fill and only $13 million available. Guentzel is likely to receive somewhere between $8 million and $10 million annually. They can’t possibly pay anyone that much money and still expect to fill out an NHL roster. Not a good one, anyway.
Other teams are in far better position to make huge offers to Guentzel.
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While Guentzel remains close with his old teammates and many people in the Penguins organization, he felt some disenchantment because of his opinion that Dubas never made a serious offer to retain him last season.
All things considered, it appears quite unlikely that Guentzel will return.
• But what if the Penguins cleared significant cap space?
Dubas is trying.
It’s no secret that the Penguins are dangling Reilly Smith, who sits at No. 17 on The Athletic’s trade big board. A Stanley Cup champion in Vegas last season, Smith never fit in with the Penguins, and his $5 million salary quickly became a problem.
Dubas tried to deal Smith at the deadline, but other teams declined because they weren’t interested in retaining Smith for two seasons.
That might all change this summer, now that Smith has only one year left on his deal. The salary cap also escalated higher than expected, which could make other teams more flexible in terms of taking on his salary.
From everything I’ve heard, I’d be very surprised if Smith is in a Penguins uniform come October.
If Dubas deals Smith, the Penguins would have $18 million in cap space, which is a considerable difference. The sooner the Penguins can trade Smith — if they can — the better. The free-agency market is better than usual, and the Penguins could considerably remake their roster with $18 million in cap space.
• So long as goaltender Tristan Jarry remains on the Penguins, I’d be surprised if unrestricted free agent Alex Nedeljkovic returns. He earned himself a raise last season, and, given the number of holes in the Penguins’ lineup, it’s hard to imagine them employing a fairly expensive backup while Jarry’s salary remains on their books.
(I’ve been calling for the Penguins to explore a Jarry trade. I’ve not been told that this is something they’re looking into. If they do, retaining Nedeljkovic suddenly makes a lot of sense.)
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• Dubas wasn’t particularly thrilled with many facets of the Penguins’ performance this season. But I would expect him to work particularly hard on the Penguins’ depth at forward, especially at left and right wing. Dubas likes his centers and foresees Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Lars Eller and Noel Acciari lining up down the middle. He loves Acciari.
There is almost no depth on the right side behind Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell. Assuming Smith is dealt, there also isn’t much depth on the left side behind Michael Bunting and Drew O’Connor.
Dubas knows the Penguins’ depth scoring is a huge problem and he needs to take some pressure off Crosby and Malkin.
• In Karlsson, Kris Letang and Marcus Pettersson, the Penguins possess 75 percent of a legitimate top four on the blue line. Late last season, P-O Joseph played with Letang and handled himself well.
I don’t know if the Penguins necessarily view Joseph as a long-term, top-four answer. But I do know Dubas and others in the front office were very pleased with Joseph in the final month of the season.
• Speaking of players the Penguins like, don’t forget about John Ludvig. In addition, Jack St. Ivany is probably going to be on the third pairing when next season begins.
In other words, don’t expect much in the way of movement on the Penguins’ blue line. It’s possible — anything’s possible when you don’t make the playoffs — but I suspect the bulk of Dubas’ work will be centered on making his forward unit better and much, much deeper.
• I wouldn’t be shocked if the Penguins add another coach. When they hired David Quinn, they announced he will coach the blue line. They didn’t mention the power play. Don’t be surprised if a power-play specialist joins the staff in some capacity.
• No one on either side is concerned about Crosby’s next contract. Crosby will get what he wants. What he wants is to remain in Pittsburgh for the rest of his career.
(Photo of Jake Guentzel: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
Josh Yohe is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the Pittsburgh Penguins. Josh joined The Athletic in 2017 after covering the Penguins for a decade, first for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and then for DKPittsburghSports.com. Follow Josh on Twitter @JoshYohe_PGH
