Kyle Dubas admitted he wants draft picks. The Pittsburgh Penguins president of hockey operations/GM wants to acquire them urgently, or at least as urgently as he can do it.
It is a stark departure from more than a decade of tossing away draft picks chasing fixes and improvements by using the selections as capital on the NHL trade market. They’ve tossed a first-rounder and second-rounder for Erik Karlsson, a second-rounder for Mikael Granlund the year before.
Between 2014 and 2021, the Penguins had just one first-round pick, selecting Sam Poulin in 2019. The lack of prospects and a discernible pipeline of replacements compounded their need for trades, and the vicious cycle depleted the Penguins’ prospect pool.
Dubas said he will attempt to undo the decade of neglect quickly, but whether he can stockpile the picks without gutting the Penguins roster is another matter.
Recent history gives a pretty good window into what players can bring back, and the rising salary cap should help Dubas’s quest but many teams have already spent their extra cap space.
So, what can Dubas get for his players?
Penguins Value on Trade Market
Tristan Jarry
It’s not happening, but with so many of you clamoring for it, we’ll throw you a bone. Jarry would not command the king’s ransom that the Calgary Flames will get if GM Craig Conroy trades Jacob Markstrom or the Boston Bruins part with Linus Ullmark.
At the 2024 NHL trade deadline, the New Jersey Devils parted with a third-rounder for Jake Allen, whose value is probably a bit less than Jarry due to a consistent sub .900 save percentage and is 33 years old. The Vancouver Canucks also included a third-rounder when they traded Tanner Pearson for Casey DeSmith.
DeSmith and his backup status should need little introduction to Penguins fans.
The goalie market in 2022-23 was barren. The LA Kings gave Columbus a first-round pick, a third-rounder, and fading Jonathan Quick in exchange for Vladislav Gavrikov and goalie Joonas Korpisalo. The high cost for the Kings was in part to shed Quick’s hefty salary.
Perhaps the easiest comparison was the Washington Capitals trading Vitek Vanecek to New Jersey on July 8, 2021, for a second and third-round pick.
Given Vanecek’s talent and potential but lack of consistent production in 2021, that’s probably the closest comparison. So, let’s say trading Jarry would net a second and third-round pick.
(And that’s why it won’t happen).
Reilly Smith
At the 2023 NHL Draft, the Penguins acquired Smith from the Vegas Golden Knights, who needed to shed salary, for a third-round pick. Smith had two years remaining on his contract with a $5 million cap hit at the time of the trade but now has a more moveable one-year remaining.
The Penguins’ problem is Smith had a bad year. After a torrid start, he went ice-cold beside Evgeni Malkin and shuffled around the Penguins lineup in the second half of the season, finishing with only 13 goals and 40 points.
Those stats certainly don’t equate to a $5 million salary, but with only one year remaining, an acquiring team isn’t on the hook for years if the trade doesn’t work. A third-rounder probably isn’t feasible, but a mid-round pick to shed the salary seems plausible based on Smith’s past success, including a handful of 20-goal seasons in his 13-year career.
Rickard Rakell
Once upon a time, former GM Ron Hextall acquired Rakell for a few bottom-of-the-lineup players and a second-round pick. Rakell has four years remaining with a cap hit of $5 million. It’s not much of a gamble to acquire Rakell, but the number of suitors who would want to pick up the payments might be limited.
A second or third-round pick and perhaps a mid-tier prospect or some help for the bottom of the lineup would be the return.
Marcus Pettersson
Pettersson has one year remaining on his contract with a $4.083 million cap hit. It’s been an adventurous run for Pettersson, who was once the promising young defenseman, then a disappointing player with an overpaying deal, and now perhaps the Penguins’ most steady defenseman.
The trade market for competent defensem*n is always fertile soil. A later first-round pick is not out of the question, but Pettersson’s trade haul would more likely be a package. When Calgary traded Chris Tanev, they netted a second and a conditional third-round pick in a three-team deal.
The Penguins could easily get a second for Pettersson and likely a prospect to boot, but they would unlikely be a better team
Noel Acciari
The Penguins’ fourth-line center had an obvious impact on the lineup, which was more noticeable in his absence than his presence. He can slot as either wing or center. On the wings, he has some crash and bang. In the middle, he’s perfectly responsible and difficult to play against.
As a 15-point center, a team wouldn’t be acquiring him for offense but to improve their penalty kill and speed and add some jam. He’s not expensive, carrying just a $2 million salary cap hit, but his value is capped at a third-round pick for a team that might need a veteran and a penalty kill boost.
Lars Eller
The Penguins resolute third-line center. He’s one of the consciences of the locker room and an intense player. He’s a winner, but do the Penguins need his intangibles as much as a team that is trying to get over a hump or win the Stanley Cup?
When the Colorado Avalanche acquired Eller at the 2023 trade deadline, it cost them a second-round pick, and there’s no reason to think Eller’s value has gone down. He’s got an affordable $2.3 million cap hit for one more season and the Penguins very well might have young players soon ready to fill the third-line center role.
Brayden Yager, Sam Poulin, and Vasily Ponomarev are three who could get a look in training camp and preseason. Even Drew O’Connor could fill the role in a pinch. It’s probably a bit of a stretch for any of the Penguins’ prospects to fill the role in October, but Eller has trade value, and there will be stop-gap free agents available at the same price or less.
Realistic Penguins’ Trade Haul
Pound the table or keyboard as you might, Jarry won’t be traded unless someone comes to the table with an offer the team cannot resist. Rakell is also far less likely to be traded than other veterans.
So, if Dubas swings a deal for all of Smith, Acciari, and Eller, he could conceivably get back a second-round pick, a third-rounder, a mid-round selection, or some combination of a commensurate prospect or two. If Dubas is feeling brave and includes Pettersson, he could include another second-rounder and more, but there is the matter of creating a competitive team in 2024-25.
