Federal debt forecast U.S. 2034 | Statista (2024)

By 2034, the gross federal debt of the United States is projected to be about 54.39 trillion U.S. dollars. This would be an increase of around 21 trillion U.S. dollars from 2023, when the federal debt was around 33 trillion U.S. dollars.

The federal debt of the U.S.

The federal debt, also called the national debt or public debt, is the amount of debt held by the United States government. This debt may be to other countries, or to different departments within the government itself. The public debt of the United States has increased significantly over the past 30 years, as it was around 3.2 trillion U.S. dollars in 1990 and surpassed 30 trillion dollars for the first time in 2022. When broken down per capita, the national debt amounted to about 80,885 U.S. dollars of debt per person in the United States in 2021.

The problem of the federal debt

Over the past decade, the federal debt limit in the United States has increased significantly. The U.S. debt ceiling can only be changed by an act of Congress which is then signed by the president. The raising of the ceiling has become a recurring political issue in recent years, especially during times when the Presidency and chambers of Congress are controlled by different parties.

The debt ceiling is a tool that allows the Treasury to issue bonds without congressional approval, allowing for efficiency in the way that the government pays for programs and services. It is thought to be further valuable in that it keeps federal finances in check. However, when the two parties are unable to come to an agreement on raising the debt ceiling, the government comes to a shutdown because they can no longer fund themselves. The Republican Party in particular often positions itself against raising the federal debt ceiling, characterizing themselves as the party of fiscal conservativism. However, analyses have shown that both parties have contributed to the country's debt in almost equal measures.

Federal debt forecast U.S. 2034 | Statista (2024)

FAQs

Federal debt forecast U.S. 2034 | Statista? ›

By 2034, the gross federal debt of the United States is projected to be about 54.39 trillion U.S. dollars. This would be an increase of around 21 trillion U.S. dollars from 2023, when the federal debt was around 33 trillion U.S. dollars.

What is the current US national debt responses? ›

The $34 trillion gross federal debt equals debt held by the public plus debt held by federal trust funds and other government accounts. In very basic terms, this can be thought of as debt that the government owes to others plus debt that it owes to itself.

What is the debt forecast for the United States? ›

The national debt will rise substantially over the coming decades. Debt held by the public equaled 97 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of fiscal year 2023. Under current law, CBO projects that ratio will continue to climb — reaching 166 percent of GDP in 2054.

What is expected to happen to the US debt in the future? ›

Under current policies, the debt is expected to climb from around 75 percent of the Gross Domestic Product today to over 120 percent by 2040, and keep growing after that.

Who is the federal debt owed to? ›

Who owns this debt? The public owes 74 percent of the current federal debt. Intragovernmental debt accounts for 26 percent or $5.9 trillion. The public includes foreign investors and foreign governments.

Who owns the most U.S. debt? ›

Nearly half of all US foreign-owned debt comes from five countries. All values are adjusted to 2023 dollars. As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

Who is the largest holder of the U.S. debt? ›

The largest holder of U.S. debt is the U.S government. Which agencies own the most Treasury notes, bills, and bonds? Social Security, by a long shot. The U.S. Treasury publishes this information in its monthly Treasury statement.

What will be the US debt in 2030? ›

Because of the large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow, from 81 percent of GDP in 2020 to 98 percent in 2030 (its highest percentage since 1946). By 2050, debt would be 180 percent of GDP—far higher than it has ever been (see Chapter 1).

At what point will the national debt be unsustainable? ›

Summary: PWBM estimates that---even under myopic expectations---financial markets cannot sustain more than the next 20 years of accumulated deficits projected under current U.S. fiscal policy.

Which country has the highest debt? ›

Japan has the highest percentage of national debt in the world at 259.43% of its annual GDP.

How bad is the US debt situation? ›

While the US national debt exceeds $34 trillion, it isn't necessarily a problem for investors.

Can the US ever get out of debt? ›

Eliminating the U.S. government's debt is a Herculean task that could take decades. In addition to obvious steps, such as hiking taxes and slashing spending, the government could take a number of other approaches, some of them unorthodox and even controversial.

How bad is our national debt? ›

Every dollar that the United States government adds to our national debt to fund today's spending is a dollar stolen from the next generation. Our current national debt stands at over $29 trillion.

Why is the US in so much debt? ›

One of the main culprits is consistently overspending. When the federal government spends more than its budget, it creates a deficit. In the fiscal year of 2023, it spent about $381 billion more than it collected in revenues. To pay that deficit, the government borrows money.

What country owes the US the most money? ›

With $1.1 trillion in Treasury holdings, Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. Japan surpassed China as the top holder in 2019 as China shed over $250 billion, or 30% of its holdings in four years.

How much does China owe? ›

In 2023, aggregate local government debt had risen to 92 trillion yuan ($12.58 trillion) and the central government of People's Republic of China ordered its banks to roll over debts in a debt-restructuring. China's gross external debt in 2023 was $2.38 trillion.

What is the current national debt quizlet? ›

the total amount of money that a country's government has borrowed over time (combined over many years) currently the US National Debt is over $20 Trillion.

What is the current debt crisis? ›

The outsized U.S. national debt is now $33.6 trillion, and the excessive deficits have reached new highs at $1.7 trillion for the fiscal year — 5.8% of GDP.

Is the US debt getting better? ›

While expanding debt has long been a concern, it tends to gain more attention during election years, and also at times when the government's interest costs become more significant. Debt has risen steadily in recent years, and as of mid-May 2024, the national debt stands at $34.56 trillion.

What is the US debt in 2024? ›

U.S. publicly held debt 2013-2024

In April 2024, the public debt of the United States was around 34.62 trillion U.S. dollars, more than two trillion more than in July when it was around 32.6 trillion U.S. dollars.

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