Why Are Mortgage Rates So High, and How Long Will They Stay Up? (2024)

FAQs

How long will mortgage rates stay elevated? ›

Mortgage rates are expected to decline when the Federal Open Market Committee cuts the benchmark interest rate, which is likely to happen in the second half of 2024. But as long as inflation runs hotter than the Fed would like, rates will remain elevated at their current levels.

Inflation: Generally, when inflation picks up, so do fixed mortgage rates. Supply and demand: When mortgage lenders have too much business, they raise rates to decrease demand.

Because inflation hasn't come down as much as expected so far this year, we'll likely need to wait a while longer before rates ease. We could see the Fed cut rates this fall. But if inflation continues to stagnate, we might not get a cut until late in 2024 or in 2025. This would keep mortgage rates elevated.

The bottom line. Today's elevated mortgage rate environment isn't preferable for homebuyers, but it doesn't mean that you should refrain from acting, either. If you discover your dream home, can afford the interest rate, find an affordable house, or have an alternative to rent, it can be worth it for you now.

After all, higher rates equate to higher minimum payments. So, you may be wondering if, and when, mortgage rates might fall to 3% or lower again - and whether or not it's worth waiting to buy a home until they do. Although rates could fall to 3% again one day, it's not likely to happen any time soon.

By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo's model expects 5.8%, and the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates 5.5%. ResiClub takes all forecasts with a grain of salt.

However, whether rates go lower in 2024 will depend, in part, on economic conditions. Experts believe that once the Fed cuts rates in 2024, refinance volume will improve as borrowers who took on high mortgage rates will jump at the chance to lower their monthly costs.

Will mortgage rates go down in 2024? In Fannie Mae's April rate forecast, the government-sponsored enterprise said it expects 30-year fixed rates to end 2024 at 6.4%. The Mortgage Bankers Association also predicts the rate will drop to 6.4% by the end of the year.

Prediction: Rates will moderate

We're not likely to see mortgage rates decline significantly until after the Fed makes its first cut; and the longer it takes for that to happen, the less likely it is that we'll see rates much below 6.5% by the end of the year.”

Where will mortgage rates be in 10 years? ›

According to their latest forecast for 30-year mortgage rates in October 2023, they expect them to range from 7.40% to 7.86%, with an average of 7.63%. They also predict that mortgage rates will peak at 9.41% in May 2024, before gradually declining to 3.67% by November 2027.

Increase your down payment

The more money you put down toward a home, the less you'll need to borrow from a lender and the lower the rate they may give you. It can also help you avoid paying for private mortgage insurance (PMI), which can add extra costs to your monthly mortgage payment.

For most homebuyers, a down payment of less than 20 percent will generally cost more money in the long run. But if saving up that kind of money will keep you from ever owning a home, it's worth considering.

The ideal scenario is to buy a home when both interest rates and home prices are low, but that isn't always possible. So, as you're considering the relationship between home prices and interest rates, keep in mind that prioritizing one over the other isn't necessarily a good idea.

“[D]uring the early part of the year, expect some bumpiness in rates as new economic data are released and as more buyers get back into the market. However, the overall outlook for mortgage rates in 2024 suggests more rate drops, with Bright MLS forecasts predicting rates to hit 6.2% by the fourth quarter.”

Will mortgage rates go down in 2024? In Fannie Mae's April rate forecast, the government-sponsored enterprise said it expects 30-year fixed rates to end 2024 at 6.4%. The Mortgage Bankers Association also predicts the rate will drop to 6.4% by the end of the year.

Now, Fannie Mae expects rates to be a half-percent higher (6.4%) by the end of this year, and remain above 6% for another two years, gradually declining to a flat 6% by fourth-quarter 2025. Freddie Mac's latest data shows the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently around 6.74%.

Where are interest rates now? More rate cuts are likely in the cards in 2025. But, right now, many bond investors are now pricing in only one rate cut for 2024, likely no earlier than November, according to Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst for CreditCards.com and Bankrate.com.