What Is the Average Stock Market Return? - NerdWallet (2024)

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What is the average stock market return?

The average stock market return is about 10% per year, as measured by the S&P 500 index, but that 10% average rate is reduced by inflation. Investors can expect to lose purchasing power of 2% to 3% every year due to inflation.

» Learn more about purchasing power with NerdWallet's inflation calculator.

The stock market is geared toward long-term investments — money you don't need for at least five years. For shorter time frames, you'll want to stick to lower-risk options — such as an online savings account — and you'd expect to earn a lower return in exchange for that safety.

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The average stock market return isn't always average

While 10% might be the average, the returns in any given year are far from average. In fact, between 1926 and 2022, returns were in that “average” band of 8% to 12% only seven times. The rest of the time they were much lower or, usually, much higher. Volatility is the state of play in the stock market.

But even when the market is volatile, returns tend to be positive in a given year. Of course, it doesn’t rise every year, but over time the market has gone up in about 70% of years.

» Intrigued? Learn how to invest in stocks

Key terms

Key term

Definition

Return

The profit or loss on an investment since its purchase. If you bought a stock for $10 and it's worth $11 now, that's a 10% return.

Index

A group of stocks whose performance is used as a measuring stick for the whole stock market, like the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Market cycle

The repeating pattern of the stock market — alternating between bull markets (upward trends) and bear markets (downward trends).

Portfolio

The group of investments you own, like stocks, bonds and funds.

5-year, 10-year, 20-year and 30-year S&P 500 returns

Below is a table showing the S&P 500's price returns over different timeframes, as of the end of 2022.

The table shows that while the market has a long-term average annual return of 10%, year-to-year returns can vary significantly. The five-year return factors in the post-pandemic surge and the 2023 recovery. The 20-year return includes the Great Recession, and the 30-year return includes the dot-com crash of the early 2000s.

» Want some practice first? Try paper trading

Period (start-of-year to end-of-2023)

Average annual S&P 500 return

5 years (2019-2023)

15.36%

10 years (2014-2023)

11.02%

15 years (2009-2023)

12.63%

20 years (2004-2023)

9.00%

25 years (1999-2023)

7.18%

30 years (1994-2023)

9.67%

Stock data is from macrotrends.net and is intended solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes.

What to expect the stock market to return

There are no guarantees in the market, but this 10% average has held remarkably steady for a long time.

So what kind of return can investors reasonably expect today from the stock market?

The answer to that depends a lot on what’s happened in the recent past. But here’s a simple rule of thumb: The higher the recent returns, the lower the future returns, and vice versa. Generally speaking, if you're estimating how much your stock-market investment will return over time, we suggest using an average annual return of 6% and understanding that you'll experience down years as well as up years. You can use NerdWallet's investment calculator to see what 6% growth looks like based on how much you're planning to invest.

Here are three key takeaways if you’re looking to make money in the stock market.

1. Temper your enthusiasm during good times. Congratulations, you’re making money. However, when stocks are running high, remember that the future is likely to be less good than the past. It seems investors have to relearn this lesson during every bull market cycle.

2. Become more optimistic when things look bad. A down market should cause you to celebrate: You can buy stocks at attractive valuations and anticipate higher future returns.

3. You get the average return only if you buy and hold. If you trade in and out of the market frequently, you can expect to earn less, sometimes much less. Commissions and taxes eat up your returns, while poorly timed trades erode your bankroll. Study after study shows that it’s almost impossible for even the professionals to beat the market. It's good to rebalance your portfolio occasionally. That means selling off a little bit of the investments that have gained more than expected, and buying a little bit of the ones that have underperformed in order to bring the portfolio back to its target composition. But other than a little bit of rebalancing, try to touch your investments as little as possible.

Over time even a few percentage points can make the difference between retiring with a tidy nest egg and continuing to drudge away in your golden years.

» Start small: How to invest $500

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What Is the Average Stock Market Return? - NerdWallet (4)

Ready to get started?

If the market’s long-term return sounds attractive to you, it’s easy to get started. You’ll first need to open a brokerage account, which allows you to buy and sell stock market investments. If you're not sure where to open your account, see our list of the best online brokers.

» Need a little help? Learn how to open a brokerage account.

What Is the Average Stock Market Return? - NerdWallet (2024)

FAQs

What Is the Average Stock Market Return? - NerdWallet? ›

The average stock market return is about 10% per year for nearly the last century, as measured by the S&P 500 index. In some years, the market returns more than that, and in other years it returns less.

What is the average return of the stock market? ›

Average Stock Market Return for the S&P 500

Fortunately, you can use data from Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller to approximate the S&P 500. Using Shiller's data, since 1971 the S&P 500 has delivered an annualized return of 7.58%—or 10.51% with dividends reinvested.

What is the average stock market return over 40 years? ›

Stock Market Historical Returns

40 Years (1982 – 2022): 11.6% annual return. 30 Years (1992 – 2022): 9.64% annual return. 20 Years (2002 – 2022): 8.14% annual return.

How much return is considered good in stock market? ›

That depends on your risk appetite, and the ability to hold on to stocks during the difficult market conditions. But historically, a return of 12-15% per annum compounded over the long term is considered very good, as this will grow exponentially as time goes by.

Is 10% stock return good? ›

Expectations for return from the stock market

Most investors would view an average annual rate of return of 10% or more as a good ROI for long-term investments in the stock market. However, keep in mind that this is an average. Some years will deliver lower returns -- perhaps even negative returns.

What is Warren Buffett's annual return? ›

Yearly Returns
Warren Buffett Portfolio
YearReturnDrawdown
2021+24.59%-4.32%
2020+19.19%-17.49%
2019+28.46%-5.73%
32 more rows

What is the average stock market return for the last 30 years? ›

Stock Market Average Yearly Return for the Last 30 Years

The average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 10.47% over the last 30 years, as of the end of April 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 30-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 7.74%.

What if I invested $1000 in S&P 500 10 years ago? ›

Over the past decade, you would have done even better, as the S&P 500 posted an average annual return of a whopping 12.68%. Here's how much your account balance would be now if you were invested over the past 10 years: $1,000 would grow to $3,300. $5,000 would grow to $16,498.

How much will 100k be worth in 30 years? ›

Answer and Explanation: The amount of $100,000 will grow to $432,194.24 after 30 years at a 5% annual return. The amount of $100,000 will grow to $1,006,265.69 after 30 years at an 8% annual return.

What is the average return on $500,000 investment? ›

Average Rate of Return: This is more difficult to calculate because by their nature private equity firms and hedge don't always report their losses and earnings. However, most estimates suggest that you can expect average returns of up to 14%.

Is 7% return on investment realistic? ›

General ROI: A positive ROI is generally considered good, with a normal ROI of 5-7% often seen as a reasonable expectation. However, a strong general ROI is something greater than 10%. Return on Stocks: On average, a ROI of 7% after inflation is often considered good, based on the historical returns of the market.

What is a realistic return on investment? ›

• A good return on investment is generally considered to be around 7% per year, based on the average historic return of the S&P 500 index, adjusted for inflation. • The average return of the U.S. stock market is around 10% per year, adjusted for inflation, dating back to the late 1920s.

How much money do I need to invest to make $3,000 a month? ›

Imagine you wish to amass $3000 monthly from your investments, amounting to $36,000 annually. If you park your funds in a savings account offering a 2% annual interest rate, you'd need to inject roughly $1.8 million into the account.

How much money do I need to invest to make $1000 a month? ›

A stock portfolio focused on dividends can generate $1,000 per month or more in perpetual passive income, Mircea Iosif wrote on Medium. “For example, at a 4% dividend yield, you would need a portfolio worth $300,000.

What is the 10% rule in stocks? ›

This rule is a general guideline for investors to use when considering their asset allocation. It suggests that investors may expect an average annual return of around 10% from stocks, 5% from bonds, and 3% from cash over the long term.

What is the safest investment with the highest return? ›

These seven low-risk but potentially high-return investment options can get the job done:
  • Money market funds.
  • Dividend stocks.
  • Bank certificates of deposit.
  • Annuities.
  • Bond funds.
  • High-yield savings accounts.
  • 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds.
May 13, 2024

What is the 10 year return of the stock market? ›

The S&P 500 average return over the past decade has come in at around 12.39%, beating the long-term historic average of 10.7% since the benchmark index was introduced 65 years ago. But the stock market return you'll see today could be very different from the average stock market return over the past 10 years.

What is the average stock market return over 20 years? ›

5-year, 10-year, 20-year and 30-year S&P 500 returns
Period (start-of-year to end-of-2023)Average annual S&P 500 return
15 years (2009-2023)12.63%
20 years (2004-2023)9.00%
25 years (1999-2023)7.18%
30 years (1994-2023)9.67%
2 more rows
Mar 5, 2024

What is the S&P 20 year return? ›

Average returns
PeriodAverage annualised returnTotal return
Last year25.7%25.7%
Last 5 years14.2%94.5%
Last 10 years15.3%316.2%
Last 20 years10.6%651.5%

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